Lack of memory, new mobile market is predicted to decline
Memory Crisis That Shakes the Smartphone Market
Smartphones that have been previously prepared to be launched to the market are now facing big challenges. A mature design and intensive marketing strategy are not sufficient to address one fundamental problem: the scarcity of memory components. The International Data Corporation (IDC) analyst company predicts that this crisis will reduce global smartphone shipments by 12.9 percent this year. This figure is the biggest decline in more than ten years. From the expected 1.26 billion units by 2025, this figure is estimated to fall to around 1.12 billion units.
A similar prediction was also made by Counterpoint Research, which estimates the market decline of around 12 percent throughout the year. For the industry, this is not just a seasonal correction, but a structural rearrangement that can change the vendor’s landscape and product composition over the long term..
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Not only the volume that was hit, the price of cellphones was also pushed up. IDC projects the average selling price of mobile phones will reach a new record of USD 523, or up about 14 percent. This increase made the lower segment even more depressed. Phones with prices below USD 100 are starting to be uneconomical to produce. In fact, the mobile segment below USD 200 is estimated to decline by 20 percent. On the other hand, the premium line is considered more resilient to market pressure.
wide global impact
The impact of this crisis is felt in various regions. The Middle East and Africa are projected to experience a decline of more than 20 percent. Meanwhile, China will experience a decline of 10.5 percent, and the Asia Pacific (outside Japan) by 13.1 percent.
Counterpoint Research assesses the supply pressure could continue into the second half of 2027, because the expansion of memory production takes time. A number of Android vendors have already raised prices between 10-20 percent since the beginning of 2026. The CEO of Nothing, Carl Pei, even warned that the price of mobile phones could soar to 30 percent or specifications must be sacrificed.
Used Mobile Market Potentially Grow
In the midst of this turmoil, one segment has the potential to grow: the used mobile phone market. When the new device is getting more expensive, the old choice is again glanced. People are starting to turn to used mobile phones as a more affordable alternative.
The memory crisis, apparently, not only hinders delivery—he can also shift the way people buy cell phones. With rising prices and limited supply, consumers are starting to look for alternative solutions. This shows how small changes in the supply chain can have a major impact on market behavior.
